Deribit: $5.8 billion Bitcoin quarterly option expiration may trigger market volatility
According to CoinDesk, cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit has stated that trading activity in the Bitcoin (BTC) market may intensify in the next two days as multi billion dollar option contracts are about to expire.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated in an interview with CoinDesk:
About 20% of the BTC options that are about to expire are in the money options, and this larger expiration may exacerbate volatility or activity as traders close or transfer positions, which could also affect the price
Trading activity in the coming months may remain strong as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves option trading for the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT), which could accelerate institutional adoption. Strijers states:
The option of ETFs is one of the biggest potential drivers. The SEC has allowed it, but the OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have not yet approved it, and it is unlikely to approve it this week
Strijers also pointed out that the pricing of options expiring in the coming months shows a bullish outlook. He said:
The skewness of BTC and ETH buying and selling options shows a negative value after the expiration in September, which is a bullish indicator because call options are more expensive than put options
The maximum pain point indicates potential downward pressure
The biggest pain point refers to the price level at which the option buyer suffers the maximum loss upon expiration. In traditional markets, a popular theory suggests that when an option is close to expiration, the maximum pain point price usually attracts prices closer like a magnet. This is because the option seller (usually a large institution with ample funds) will influence the spot price through trading the underlying asset, bringing it closer to the maximum pain point price and causing the buyer to bear the maximum loss.
The biggest pain point for the Bitcoin option that expires this Friday is $58000, while the current trading price for Bitcoin spot is $63800. Rick Maeda, an analyst at Presto Research, said in an interview with CoinDesk that this does create some potential downward pressure as it approaches maturity.
The maximum pain point theory has been circulating since 2021, although some people believe that the cryptocurrency options market is still relatively small and not enough to have a significant impact on spot prices.
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